September sales dip 1.7%, yet market remains on track for steady recovery into next year
After five consecutive months of growth, Canadian home sales took a modest step back in September 2025, easing 1.7% from August levels.
Newly released data from the Canadian Real Estate Association reveals that, despite the slowdown, it was still the strongest September showing since 2021 with the dip primarily driven by reduced sales activity in key urban hubs, including Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, and Montreal. These declines outweighed modest gains in the Greater Toronto Area and Winnipeg.
“While the trend of rising sales that began earlier this year took a breather in September, activity was still running at the highest level for that month since 2021, and that was true in July and August as well,” explains Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “With three years of pent-up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, the forecast continues to be for further upward momentum in home sales over the final quarter of the year and into 2026.”
The MLS® Home Price Index slipped just 0.1% month-over-month and dropped 3.4% annually, while the national average sale price climbed 0.7% year-over-year to $676,154.
Price trends were mostly flat, with the National Composite MLS® HPI nearly unchanged from August and down 3.4% year-over-year. The stabilization seen since April suggests that earlier price corrections have largely run their course, and year-over-year comparisons may improve through late 2025.
CREA Chair Valérie Paquin noted that while buyers are re-entering the market, overall sales still lag historical averages.
“While there are more buyers in the market now than at almost any other point in the last four years, sales activity is still below average and well below where the long-term trend suggests it should be,” she says. “As such, we expect things will continue to steadily pick up going forward.”
New listings also declined slightly, nudging the sales-to-new listings ratio to 50.7%, just below August’s 51.2% reading. That figure remains within CREA’s balanced market range of 45% to 65%. At the end of September, there were 199,772 active listings nationwide, up 7.5% from a year earlier but near the long-term seasonal norm.
Inventory levels remained steady at 4.4 months of supply—unchanged since July and the lowest since January—indicating ongoing tightness in some regions. CREA considers five months of inventory to represent long-term balance.
Outlook: 2025 Calm, 2026 Comeback
CREA’s latest projections show roughly 473,093 properties expected to trade hands in 2025, a 1.1% dip from 2024 levels.
Lower activity in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario is expected to outweigh gains elsewhere. The national average home price is forecast to decline 1.4% this year to $676,705, driven mainly by price softening in higher-value provinces.
By 2026, however, CREA anticipates a more robust rebound, with national sales projected to rise 7.7% to 509,479—the strongest since 2021. The average price is forecast to climb 3.2% to $698,622, marking a return to the $700,000 range that has defined much of the past decade.
