Concordia University's findings underscore the need for private investment and policy shifts to boost housing
This article has been produced in partnership with Equiton
Research from Concordia University’s John Molson School of Business — supported by the Equiton Research Fund in Real Estate — has changed how Canadians, from policymakers to investors, view the housing market. What began as a deep dive into demand drivers and supply barriers has evolved into a roadmap that highlights not only the issues at play, but also the opportunities ahead.
For real estate investors, these solutions-oriented insights reveal how strategic capital can drive progress while tapping into the long-term growth potential of a market in transition.
The two research reports were authored by Erkan Yönder, Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance at Concordia University and Director of the Jonathan Wener Centre for Real Estate. Powered by traditional econometrics and artificial intelligence (AI), forecasts show continued growth in rental markets across Canada, driven by ongoing demand and elevated home prices. His research also uncovered opportunities to spur housing development through governmental policy levers. While the reports diverged in the themes they explored, a common thread emerged: home prices are expected to keep climbing over the long term. This is something even substantial increases in supply may fail to alleviate in certain regions.
With no end in sight for demand — particularly for rental units — and as single-family homes remain out of reach for many, the research supports real estate investment with a strong sectoral focus on multifamily properties. Between the asset class’s track record of resilience and the strong fundamentals here in Canada, multifamily continues to provide a strong investment opportunity.
Rents are expected to continue growing across Canada
Earlier this year, Yönder’s inaugural rent growth report, AI-Driven Insights into Key Factors Contributing to Rental Growth Across Canada, used machine-learning modelling to project rents and pinpoint regions under pressure from immigration and prevailing shortages.
The projections show that metropolitan areas with existing imbalances, such as Toronto and Vancouver, may face the greatest shifts. For instance, in Toronto, rents are projected to grow by 26% by 2027 and by another 37% by 2032. Meanwhile, Vancouver rents are forecasted to rise 51% and another 49% during those same periods.
Yönder emphasized that both public- and private-sector investment would be required to shift markets toward moderation. Ultimately, his analysis was clear: to meet demand, increasing supply will be crucial.
Massive supply boosts required to meaningfully increase housing stock
Yönder’s recently published follow up, Breaking Ground: AI-Driven Analysis of How Policy Reform Can Unleash Canadian Housing Supply, is a first-of-its-kind paper that explores how market forces and policy decisions shape home prices and identifies data-backed strategies to boost supply.
Yönder’s research found that, across Canada, a 10% reduction in building restrictions — think zoning rules and density limits— can raise annual home completions by almost 10% of total supply. A 10% reduction in approval delays unlocks another 3%. In contrast, a 10% increase in input costs — primarily materials, but also taxes, fees and labour — can reduce housing completions by 25% to 35%, with the greatest impact on apartment-style housing.
“We’ve long recognized how policy barriers and the costs they create contribute to Canada’s housing shortage. This research was well received across the industry and has helped inform decision making at Equiton. We hope it proves just as useful for other stakeholders,” says Christopher Wein, Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments, Equiton’s in-house development division.
Encouragingly, the findings suggest that increasing housing development by a meaningful amount could be within reach. But getting home and rent prices under control may not be as simple as boosting supply. Yönder’s report concludes that in markets like Toronto and Vancouver, even doubling supply may only succeed at moderating growth.
Opportunities for private-sector investment
The findings of these pivotal reports reflect what many Canadians have long called for: greater collaboration between all levels of government, private real estate investors, and the public. Private investment, in particular, plays a vital role in both adding new supply and maintaining the homes we already have. While progress may be incremental, creating a policy environment that reduces costs and approval timelines while accounting for Canada’s complex demand dynamics is essential to unlocking new housing supply and, someday, affordability.
