How the Trump administration supercharged M&A activity

By mid-July of this year, bankers and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) advisors were cancelling their vacations. Hard-earned time off in the dog days of summer was completely undone by about $1 trillion of global deal flow between June and August of 2025, marking the best year since the end of the pandemic for global M&A markets and a new sense of optimism for private equity markets after a sustained slump in activity. One portfolio manager explains that the catalyst for this shift begins with US Presidential policy.

Amar Pandya, Portfolio Manager at Penderfund, explains that under President Biden, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) pursued an aggressive and novel set of approaches to dampen M&A activity, with a view to consumer protection and fostering competition. The policy approach was personified in the figure of FTC chair Lena Khan, who went after major deals like the Microsoft-Activision merger, resulting in a slower process with greater regulatory burdens. The onerous nature of deals under the past administration resulted in an overall downturn in M&A activity. Now, however, the Trump administration and FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson have set a new tone that’s driving waves of M&A again.

“I think the single biggest catalyst, and it's the US, but it's benefited Canada as well, has been the Trump administration putting in new appointees at the DOJ and the FTC. And really rolling back all of those restrictions that the previous Biden administration put in. So they're obviously creating volatility in all other parts of the market when it comes to tariffs and trade. But one area where they've been very consistent has been in regulatory policy. They're viewed as a very transactional party as well. So if you want to make a deal, if you can sell it to them, with a narrative that can show the benefit to the U.S. government and the U.S. population, you can get almost any transaction approved.”

More fundamental economic factors have compounded the role of US regulatory policy in this space. Interest rates have come down from their 2023 highs, unlocking cheaper capital for leveraged buyouts. Public markets are at all time highs, driving both investor confidence and the need for diversified sources of future returns. Pandya notes the example of the recent take-private deal where private equity firm Silver Lake and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia acquired gaming firm Electronic Arts. JP Morgan provided sole funding for the $20 billion deal, which he believes highlights the immense confidence investors now have in these markets.

As for the timing of the activity this year, and why so much North American M&A took place over the summer, Pandya notes that private equity firms needed time to adjust to US tariff policies announced in spring. Between some of the tariff walk backs that took place over the spring and the fact that companies have learned to deal with the new reality, M&A activity was pushed into the summer, where it exploded.

Pandya says that many of those deals have been in the metals & mining space, in both the US and Canada, as well as in staples, consumer discretionary, and industrials. Tariffs have actually added a tailwind to some acquisitions as large firms realize they need scale and pricing power to manage tariff-borne disruptions. Acquisitions can give them that scale. In Canada, too, there have been notable deals in the energy sector, especially in the ongoing bidding war for MEG Energy.

Private equity firms also have plenty of cash right now. Pandya says that literally trillions of dollars of ‘dry powder’ are waiting to be deployed. All that cash needs somewhere to go and M&A advisory firms need performance fees. The incentives are all pointing towards deals and with regulatory hurdles removed in the US, this industry is charging up again.

For advisors who may have more recently begun seeking private equity exposure in client portfolios, Pandya notes that this shift into higher gear presents an opportunity at the right time. Many private credit funds were starting to approach or pass their target return date, meaning they need to exit the businesses they acquired five or ten years ago. The improvements in activity now mean those businesses can be sold more easily. Buyers also have better financing and easier means of accessing deals. Pandya notes that it’s a particularly advantageous time in the M&A arbitrage space.

“Both from a seller's perspective, as well as a buyer's perspective, there are potential transactional opportunities on both sides,” Pandya says. “it's a perfect. tailwind environment for a strategy like M&A arbitrage, where it's a robust M&A environment, attractive spreads, and if you're concerned about valuations in the market, it's non-correlated and has absolute return in mind.”