Firms weigh refund scenarios while tariffs stay in place until Oct 14 amid legal and political battles
A US federal appeals court has ruled that many Trump administration tariffs were imposed illegally, a decision that could force the US government to repay billions of dollars to businesses while leaving the duties in place until Oct. 14, reported by Bloomberg.
The ruling casts uncertainty over trade flows involving more than 90 countries, including Canada, and raises questions about how refunds would be processed if the Supreme Court upholds the decision.
According to CNBC, tariff revenue this fiscal year has already reached US$142bn, with the White House collecting over US$30bn monthly from trade duties.
Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, said he does not see the administration giving up on these revenues and noted that companies are cautious with forward ordering.
He added that options for the administration include a Supreme Court appeal, seeking Senate powers for 6 to 9 months with an end date before the Nov. 26 elections, or expanding commodity-specific tariffs such as those on steel and aluminum.
Logistics professionals said day-to-day operations remain steady despite the legal setback.
Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics, told CNBC that “we have not heard anything much or seen any changes.” He said most shippers are waiting for the Supreme Court’s ruling, noting that frontloading earlier in the year reduced immediate impact.
Refunds are a central concern for importers.
Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson, said the ruling affects reciprocal tariffs on most countries and drug-related tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which make up the bulk of duty payments.
He added that if refunds are ordered, they could either be automatic or require customs brokers to handle individual filings — a process that could double workloads overnight.
Dan Anthony, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, said blanket refunds would be straightforward using IEEPA-specific codes, while an individual request system would be “infinitely more complex.”
The breadth of the tariffs underscores the potential scale of refunds.
Michael Lowell of Reed Smith told CNBC that the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States contains over 11,000 subheadings, with only about 5 percent exempt from reciprocal tariffs.
Every code is also subject to “fentanyl” tariffs on Canadian-, Chinese-, and Mexican-origin goods unless covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
He added that Section 232 tariffs target about 800 codes but span products beyond steel, copper, and aluminum.
Bloomberg reported that the appeals court upheld a lower ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant “unbounded” tariff authority.
The decision applies to baseline tariffs of 10 percent, reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10 to 41 percent, and levies tied to the fentanyl crisis. Duties imposed under Section 232 and Section 301 remain unaffected.
The New York Times noted that the 7–4 ruling emphasized Congress’s constitutional power over tariffs and found that Trump overstepped by using a 1970s law that does not mention duties.
The political and fiscal stakes are high.
The New York Times reported that President Trump said without tariffs and “all of the TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS we have already taken in, our Country would be completely destroyed.”
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned the ruling could trigger retaliation and unwind trade agreements.
Meanwhile, Peter Navarro called the court decision “weaponized partisan injustice.”
Experts advise companies not to restructure supply chains prematurely.
Josh Teitelbaum of Akin told CNBC that firms should “stay the course,” warning that if IEEPA tariffs are overturned, new duties may be imposed under other authorities.
Felicia Pullam, formerly of US Customs and Border Protection, said refunds would be challenging but manageable over time, though they would add to the budget deficit.
She said a court loss would not “sink the economy” and that tariff alternatives are ready if needed.
For shippers, the clock is ticking.
Lowell noted that businesses have 314 days from customs processing to file appeals, with the window closing by the end of December given early frontloading this year.
Until the Supreme Court makes its decision, tariffs remain in force, sustaining both government revenues and uncertainty for importers.
