White House warns missing jobs and inflation reports could leave policymakers and investors in the dark
A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the US economic outlook as key government data—including October’s US jobs and inflation reports—may never be released, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Leavitt warned that the prolonged government shutdown could result in “permanently impaired” economic data, leaving policymakers at the US Federal Reserve “flying blind at a critical period,” as reported by CNBC.
Wall Street has been closely watching for the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index, both of which remain in limbo.
Despite the shutdown’s historic length, most economists expect only a minimal impact on overall economic growth.
Goldman Sachs, for instance, has raised its GDP outlook for the third quarter to 3.7 percent and its full-year forecast to 1.3 percent, citing a “limited impact” on the quality of jobs data.
Citigroup economists speculated that while the US September jobs report could be released soon, the October count may be delayed until December.
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, explained that while hard data from businesses can be collected retroactively, “the more nuanced qualitative surveys cannot be replicated,” making some losses permanent.
The shutdown’s ripple effects have also been felt in currency markets.
As reported by Reuters, the yen hovered near a record low against the euro and a nine-month trough to the dollar, following comments from Japan’s new prime minister favouring low interest rates.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar remained strong, with robust domestic data reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term.
On the policy front, US President Donald Trump defended the need for skilled foreign workers in a Fox News interview, arguing that the US lacks “certain talents” domestically.
His comments followed a high-profile immigration raid at a Georgia Hyundai facility and drew criticism from Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who voiced her opposition to replacing American workers with foreign labour, as reported by CNN.
As the House moves to pass the funding package to reopen the government, the White House has confirmed that President Trump will sign the bill on camera, officially ending the longest shutdown in US history, according to CNN.
However, the lasting damage to the government’s statistical system and the delayed release of critical economic data remain top concerns for investors, economists, and policymakers alike.
