Outlook offers some hope amid tariff threats and economic malaise
Deloitte Canada's 2025 holiday retail outlook reveals some signs of resilience among Canadian consumers.
The report forecasts a holiday spending increase of three per cent in 2025, despite the plurality of Canadians expecting that the economy will worsen in the coming year. Spending on gifts and experiences is forecast to increase, but there are signs of cut backs in discretionary spending which Deloitte attributes to ongoing economic uncertainty.
“Consumers are signaling that they intend to spend this holiday season, but with mindfulness. This balanced approach is fostering a resilient and resourceful consumer base, creating an environment where retailers can adapt and innovate,” says Shaunna Conway, Partner and National Retail Leader at Deloitte Canada.
The report found that 78 per cent of Canadians plan to focus on value for the holiday season, with more of a focus on finding deals. Respondents also said they plan to begin holiday shopping earlier in the year in order to better find those deals.
Household finances were found to be in a better state, up three per cent from 2024. However, 46 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, up 10 per cent from 2024's report. 70 per cent of respondents are worried about a recession, while 80 per cent are worried about tariffs. The report also found that consumers expect inflation to move higher, 70 per cent of consumers surveyed think that prices will go up this year.
